Introduction

The question of whether the Northmen will abandon Stannis Baratheon after defeating the Boltons has been a topic of heated debate in the T TV lore fan community. While it is true that the North is often seen as fiercely independent, the nuances of loyalty and pragmatism suggest a more complex scenario. This article explores the historical and strategic context to understand the potential actions of the Northmen.

Historical Pragmatism and Loyalty

The Northmen's history reveals a considerable degree of pragmatism. For instance, when Torrhen Stark knelt before Aegon I Targaryen, there was no uproar about him giving up his crown. This knee-bending event demonstrated the Northmen's willingness to subordinate their ambitions to political and regional stability.

The declaration of Robb Stark as king was an anomaly, driven by a sense of duty and honor rather than a paradigm shift in Northmen behavior. Most of those who chose to declare Robb as king are either dead or held captive, suggesting that the Northmen's loyalty to the Starks is conditional and not an immutable fact.

While the Northmen are staunchly Stark loyalists, their primary goal is to ensure regional stability and prosperity rather than absolute independence. The idea that honor is not pragmatic is a misinterpretation of the Northmen's actions and motivations. Given this perspective, it is more likely that the Northmen would prefer to return to a status quo ante bellum of nominal rule by the Iron Throne and de facto rule by Stark lords in the North.

Pragmatic Loyalty

Loyalty to the Northmen is not solely about maintaining the legacy of a single ruler. They would be more inclined to accept a new ruler as long as that ruler's policies align with their interests. Stannis Baratheon has pledged to save “Ned Stark’s little girl” from a sadist traitor and would try to reinstate Rickon Stark as Lord of Winterfell. While this gesture could sway some, it is unlikely to be enough to garner full, unconditional loyalty from the Northmen.

It is important to note that Stannis is not the only candidate for the Iron Throne. If he were to die in the pursuit of reclaiming Winterfell, it would leave a power vacuum. In such a scenario, the Northmen would consider all options and choose the one that best serves their interests, which would be a Stark.

Strategic Considerations

The Northmen are pragmatic, and their actions are based on strategic interests. They will fight for Stannis as long as their interests align with his rule. However, if it becomes clear that Stannis is a threat to their long-term stability, they may abandon him. Their loyalty is not absolute but conditional on the perceived benefits.

For example, if Stannis were to maintain the Northern way of life, respect their traditions, and ensure their security against the Boltons and their allies, the Northmen would be more likely to support him. However, if he were to impose new policies that go against their interests, such as converting them to a different religion or engaging in protracted wars that drain their resources, they would likely choose to support a new ruler.

Final Thoughts

The Northmen are fiercely loyal to the Starks, but their loyalty is not unconditional. They will fight for Stannis as long as it serves their interests, and they will see him as a temporary leader. However, if Stannis failed to deliver on his promises or if another candidate emerges who can better serve their interests, the Northmen may choose to support that other ruler.

In conclusion, while the Northmen are unlikely to betray Stannis outright, they are not bound to follow him unconditionally. Their loyalty will be based on pragmatic considerations and their assessment of who can best serve their interests in the long term.