Why Andrew Yang is a Long Shot Candidate for the Presidency in 2020

Andrew Yang may seem like a strong contender for the presidency in the 2020 election, but there are several reasons why his campaign faces significant challenges. For starters, Yang lacks the experience and track record of an experienced politician, having never run a major campaign or engaged in political organizing before. However, it's not just his inexperience that makes his candidacy a long shot; a wide array of factors, from personal branding to policy platforms, contribute to why his path to the presidency is fraught with obstacles.

Lack of Political Experience and Campaigning Expertise

There is a common misconception that politics is a straightforward, mechanistic system where voters consistently gravitate towards the candidate with the most compelling or populist argument. In reality, voters are people—described by some as 'dumb panicky dangerous animals,' reflecting their complex and often irrational decision-making processes. Experienced politicians have honed their ability to understand and manage these dynamics, building their campaigns around both a platform and their personal brand or identity.

Although Yang has made notable strides by refining his 'universal basic income' (UBI) policy, his approach to other issues is often seen as superficial. He has yet to demonstrate the ability to treat these issues with the seriousness and depth required to make a lasting political impact. While he has garnered some support through his grassroots efforts, mobilized by what he calls the 'Yang Gang,' his oratory style remains somewhat juvenile. It lacks the emotional resonance and persuasive power that many successful candidates possess.

Disadvantages in Campaigning and Personal Branding

Yang's personal brand, while it has some traction, particularly with younger voters, still has a significant way to go in terms of broadening his appeal. His delivery style is often perceived as flat and lacking in the rally-cry authenticity that many audiences find compelling. Moreover, his attempts at self-deprecating humor often backfired, leading some to feel uncomfortable rather than at ease.

While the grand narrative of his campaign emphasizes that he is not playing the populist card, voters have difficulty seeing any traditional populist elements in his platform. Instead, Yang's messages are seen as technocratic solutions lacking the emotional appeal that many voters crave during a presidential race. This technocratic approach, while innovative, may not align with what the electorate is looking for in a candidate.

Insufficient Name Recognition and Campaign Funds

The Achilles' heel of Yang's campaign is his relative anonymity among voters. In a vast and chaotic political landscape, name recognition can be a critical factor in dominating public discourse and gaining early momentum. Additionally, without substantial campaign funds, Yang struggles to achieve the visibility and support necessary to mount a competitive challenge. Even more problematic, he does not have the endorsement or backing of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), which is currently backing more extreme left-leaning candidates like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

Feasibility of Defeating Trump in the General Election

Considering the current political climate and the formidable challenge posed by incumbent President Trump, it is highly unlikely that Yang or any of the existing candidates standing can defeat Trump in the general election. Trump's experience, media savvy, and loyal base contribute to his status as a front-runner in the primary and general elections. Even so, Yang's campaign would still be interesting to observe, especially when paired with Tulsi Gabbard, another candidate who garners attention beyond the traditional party lines.

Conclusion: The Overwhelming Challenge of Presidential Nomination

The simplest answer to why Andrew Yang is a long shot candidate for the presidency in 2020 is that he cannot win the nomination for either the Democratic or Republican parties. Winning the presidency requires more than just a compelling message or a sympathetic platform; it necessitates the right combination of political experience, name recognition, campaign funds, and broad voter appeal. Yang currently falls far short on all these counts, making his path to the White House a lengthy and challenging one.