What If Balon Greyjoy and Lysa Arryn Supported Robb Stark for Independence?

In A Song of Ice and Fire, the War of the Five Kings saw Robert Baratheon's son, Robb Stark, fighting for independence from the Iron Throne. If Balon Greyjoy and Lysa Arryn had supported Robb, the narrative of the war could have been drastically altered.

Strengthened Northern Alliance

Unified Front: The support of the Iron Islands and the Vale would have created a formidable coalition against the Lannisters and their rivals. This alliance could have provided Robb with additional troops and resources, enhancing his military campaigns.

Strategic Positioning: The Greyjoys could have launched attacks from the sea, adding mobility to Robb's forces and the ability to disrupt Lannister supply lines. Meanwhile, Lysa's support from the Vale could have provided a secure base of operations and reinforcements.

Potential Political Ramifications

Increased Legitimacy: The backing of influential houses would have lent Robb's cause greater legitimacy, potentially attracting more supporters from other regions.

Tensions with Other Houses: However, such an alliance might have alienated other houses in the North or the Riverlands, particularly those loyal to the Lannisters or those fearful of a strong Northern alliance.

Impact on Key Events

The Battle of the Five Kings: With additional forces, Robb might have secured more decisive victories. The outcomes of key battles such as the Battle of the Camps or the Battle of Oxcross could have been different, potentially shifting the balance of power.

Lysa's Influence: Lysa's support could have introduced new political tactics, especially in the Vale where her influence might have been used to sway other lords to Robb's side.

Consequences for the Iron Islands and the Vale

Greyjoy Ambitions: Balon might have used his support for Robb to push for greater autonomy for the Iron Islands, seeking to expand their influence and control over trade routes.

Lysa's Instability: Lysa's mental state and her tumultuous rule in the Vale could have created challenges. If her support for Robb was seen as self-serving or unstable, it could have led to dissent among her bannermen.

Potential Downfall

Internal Conflicts: The alliance could have been fragile with competing interests between the Greyjoys and the Arryns. Disagreements over strategy or territorial claims could have led to infighting, undermining Robb's efforts.

Response from the Lannisters: The Lannisters, facing a stronger Northern alliance, would likely have escalated their efforts to dismantle it, possibly leading to more brutal reprisals against the North and the Vale.

In Conclusion

The support of Balon Greyjoy and Lysa Arryn for Robb Stark's independence could have significantly altered the course of the War of the Five Kings, leading to a stronger Northern alliance and shifting political dynamics. However, the inherent challenges of maintaining such an alliance would also pose significant risks.