Warner Bros. and ‘Tenet’: Navigating the Release Framework in the Age of Coronavirus

When Warner Bros. announced the push of ‘Tenet’ to August, it framed the decision as aggressive but ultimately necessary—an effort to capitalize on the industry's first chance at full capacity theaters. However, the situation is far more complex than just that. The global pandemic has wreaked havoc on the film industry, specifically in the way theatrical releases are being managed.

The Pandemic and Its Impact on Theaters

As we stand in the first wave of the pandemic's impact, the overwhelming majority of theaters in North America are either closed or operating at limited capacity. This presents a significant challenge for ‘Tenet’, a film with a substantial budget and high expectations for box office success. Warner Bros. correctly assessed that the film requires nearly a billion dollars to be considered a commercial success, which would necessitate not only strong performance in North America but also significant international audiences as well.

Marketing and Awareness

Furthermore, the film’s release date played a critical role in its marketing strategy. No one knew what ‘Tenet’ was or was about—not even the general movie-going public. Limited television commercials, absent talk show circuit appearances, and sparse advertisements on digital platforms all contributed to the film’s lack of awareness. A strategic delay to August can be seen as a move to ensure the film gets enough exposure before its theatrical release. By the time August comes, it might be easier for potential audiences to familiarize themselves with the film concept.

The Economic Context

The US economy, still recovering from the pandemic's economic fallout, presents another layer of complexity. Many people are either unemployed or concerns about their economic security have led to reduced discretionary spending. While the economic indicators for August may improve compared to June and July 2020, the studio’s cautious approach underscores their desire to time the release for a more receptive audience.

The AMC Factor

Another crucial consideration is the well-being of AMC, one of the largest and most influential theater chains. The impending financial crisis of AMC could result in a smaller number of screens and reduced capacity. Warner Bros. likely factored this into their release strategy—hoping that by August, AMC would be stable enough to support a large-scale release. If AMC were to collapse, the availability of theaters would drastically decrease, posing a significant risk to the film's commercial prospects.

Should ‘Tenet’ Be Rescheduled for 2021?

In light of the ongoing pandemic and the uncertainties surrounding a potential peak in cases, the studio might have been more cautious about a June 2020 release. Without a vaccine or cure for COVID-19 in sight, full attendance at film theaters remains a risk that many potential audiences may be unwilling to take. A postponement to 2021 could offer Warner Bros. and the film a more opportune environment to thrive in, as theaters would likely be more fully operational and economically stable by then.

Conclusion

The decision to push the release of ‘Tenet’ to August reflects a pragmatic approach to navigating the complexities brought about by the pandemic. While it is a highly risky environment for the film industry, Warner Bros. appears to have made a measured assessment that aligns with the current landscape. Only time will tell whether this strategy will prove to be the right move for ‘Tenet’s success, but it is a reflection of the significant challenges the industry continues to face.