Understanding Why Russia Refuses to Return Donbass to the Russian Federation

Introduction

The annexation of Donbass and Crimea has been a contentious issue in international relations, especially with respect to the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The region, with its complex history and diverse political affiliations, remains at the center of geopolitical tensions. Understanding the motivations and reasons behind Russia's decision to refuse returning Donbass to Ukraine is crucial for comprehending the current geopolitical landscape and the future of the region.

Historical Context

Ukrainian President Vladimir Putin has viewed the Donbas region as a strategic outpost from which to exert control over the Ukrainian government. This was his vision for a federated Ukraine where the Donbas provinces would remain aligned with Russia while still maintaining a semblance of independence from central Ukrainian governance. However, this strategy did not succeed, and Russia's inability to fully conquer the region has led to ongoing conflict.

Strategic Motivations

There are several strategic motivations for Russia to hold onto Donbass:

NATO and EU Expansion

One of the primary reasons for Russia's refusal to return Donbass to Ukraine is the risk of NATO and EU membership for Ukraine. Both organizations require that member countries have no disputed territories and the ability to resolve territorial disputes diplomatically. The annexation of Donbass and Crimea complicates this process, as it is viewed as a violation of Ukrainian sovereignty. Putin is wary of similar outcomes as Iraq faced in 2003, leading to the loss of sovereignty and control. Therefore, maintaining a presence in these regions serves Russia's strategic interests in preventing Ukraine from joining these organizations.

Political Posturing and Putin's Ego

Putin's refusal to withdraw troops is partly due to his desire to project an image of strength and control. His ego is very fragile, and a withdrawal would be seen as a sign of weakness, leading to political fallout in Russia. The Kremlin has already bolstered its positions in the region, with over 40,000 troops and significant air and naval assets under NATO command in the eastern part of the alliance. Additionally, there are hundreds of thousands of troops from allied national deployments. This large military presence makes a withdrawal seem less like a strategic retreat and more like a failure.

Imperialist Motivations

Imperial ambitions also play a significant role in Russia's decision. Putin’s actions are characterized by a desire to expand Russian influence and control over territory, mirroring the approach of historical figures like Joseph Stalin. The annexation of Donbass and Crimea is seen as a demonstration of Russian power and a assertion of influence over neighboring regions. These actions also serve to intimidate other nations, such as Ukraine, who may consider aligning with Western organizations.

Local Support and Russian Nationalism

A significant factor in Russia's decision to hold onto Donbass is the support from the local population. Many residents in the Donbas region want to remain part of Russia, seeing Ukrainian governance as unfriendly and potentially harmful. This local support has been a critical component in maintaining Russian influence in the region, even in the face of international pressure and sanctions.

The annexation and subsequent reconstruction of Donbass and Crimea have been key strategies in Russia's broader geopolitical strategy. The region has become a focal point for both diplomatic and military engagement, complicating efforts to resolve the conflict and bring about a lasting peace.

Conclusion

Understanding why Russia refuses to return Donbass to the Russian Federation requires a comprehensive analysis of historical context, strategic motivations, and local support. The international community must continue to monitor and engage in this complex issue to find a resolution that respects the sovereignty of Ukraine and maintains regional stability. The geopolitical landscape is fluid, and the decisions made today will shape the future of the region for years to come.