The Uncertain Future of Brexit: Boris Johnson and October 2019

Introduction

As October 2019 approached, Prime Minister Boris Johnson's position on Brexit was as precarious as ever. With negotiations in a stalemate and the looming deadline, the atmosphere was tense. This article explores the potential outcomes for Boris Johnson, focusing on the Hallowe'en Brexit bash, the possible scenarios, and the likely consequences for both the UK and European Union.

Hallowe'en Brexit Bash: A Costume Party Built on Failure

Boris Johnson’s Hallowe'en Brexit bash is aptly described as a costume party where all participants are so deeply committed to their cause that they don’t even need disguises. The evening marks a significant failure in British political history, symbolizing the inability to secure a smooth Brexit deal. On the surface, it might seem like a celebration of victory, but Boris himself is looking ahead to a future of retribution from the British public and political opponents.

The next day, November 5th, will be a day of retribution. The people will celebrate by lighting bonfires of Brexit, with effigies of Boris Johnson, the Brexiteer George F. Johnson, and far-right political figures like Nigel Farage. For Boris, this is not just a symbolic gesture but a reflection of the political climate he has helped to create.

Optimistic Scenarios: The Best (and Worst) Case

Let us consider the best possible scenario: Johnson bribes Hungary or Poland to veto the UK’s extension request, providing them with enough benefits to offset the political capital spent on the vote. At the parliamentary level, this might seem like a victory, as it avoids the need for the House of Commons to vote on revoking Article 50. However, this comes with severe constitutional complications.

Collusion and Constitutional Crisis

Boris Johnson has now colluded with a foreign power to obstruct the UK’s interests and defiance of parliamentary will. This represents a massive constitutional crisis, with Johnson now owing Poland or Hungary a “favour.” Given this situation, he must run a General Election campaign under the shadow of legitimate charges of treason, alongside the chaos of a No Deal Brexit.

Failure to Achieve Brexit

The EU, devoid of immediate threats, is in a position to negotiate new terms. They will emphasize that sticking to an arbitrary and meaningless deadline has gained the UK nothing, especially given their continued insistence on EU citizens' rights, the exit bill, and the Northern Ireland border situation. These negotiations will be entered with a clear understanding that the UK needs to change its stance.

Consequences for Boris Johnson's Political Future

Johnson’s ability to deregulate or pass contentious laws is now severely limited. His claims of needing flexibility to enter a US trade deal will fall flat among those who voted to leave the EU specifically to avoid a US trade agreement. Environmental promises will also resonate poorly with a growing environmental consciousness, while his NHS sacrifice for a trade deal will be a non-starter.

On the other hand, securing Brexit at any cost, including political treason, will solidify the support of far-right parties like UKIP, the Brexit Party, the National Front, and the EDL. The risk that these groups will join the Conservative Party remains uncertain, but their votes are an opportunity.

Second-Best Outcome: Escalating Nationalism and Chaos

The best-case scenario mentioned earlier pales in comparison to the worst-case scenario. Scottish nationalism will gain a significant boost, with the Independence movement likely to gear up for a swift push. Northern Ireland, on the other hand, will be in a state of chaos, with the hated border controls leading to significant public resentment. Widespread opposition to Brexit within England itself might require the British Army's redeployment for protection.

This environment will not be conducive to winning a General Election, as Johnson will need to address a multitude of compromised positions and voter dissatisfaction.

Conclusion

The future of Brexit under Boris Johnson remains uncertain. While the best-case scenarios look grim, the worst-case outcomes illustrate a path of political and social upheaval. Regardless of the specific outcome, the road ahead is fraught with challenges and potential controversies.