What Will Happen If Russia Continues to Fight in Ukraine?

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict poses a significant threat not just to the combatants but to the global order as a whole. If Ukraine capitulates, it would likely lose its sovereign status, paving the way for a Western-controlled Ukrainian state to persist. However, if Ukraine resists until defeat, the consequences could be catastrophic, with Russia absorbing all of Ukraine into its territory.

The Final Defeat and Rising Russian Pressure

The Ukrainian military may soon face its ultimate defeat, leading to a sustained pressure from Russian forces along the entire front line. A new offensive by Russian troops could follow, eroding what remains of the Ukrainian defense. This scenario could result in severe territorial concessions for Ukraine or even the total annexation of its eastern regions.

A Ceasefire and Peace Deal?

Despite the Russian military's dominance, Ukraine cannot sustain financial and logistical burdens of prolonged warfare with external support. As Ukraine becomes disillusioned with the prospects of expulsion of Russian forces, it might seek a deal that stops the war and establishes some kind of peace. This could involve territorial concessions, demilitarization, or other forms of political settlement.

Ukraine's Strategic Retreat and Russian Military Advantage

Ukraine will likely suffer significant losses in the coming battles, particularly in the Donbass region and possibly in Saporischshja. These losses will erode the military effectiveness and morale of the Ukrainian forces. As the months pass, the true extent of the conflict's toll will become evident.

The Cost of Conflict

The war is taking a heavy toll on both sides, with casualties mounting due to intense fighting and poor conditions. The conflict shows no signs of abating anytime soon, with neither side showing any willingness to negotiate a peaceful resolution in the near future. The human cost and the political ramifications will continue to escalate.

The End of the Conflict: A State Funeral and Beyond

On the day Queen Elizabeth II was laid to rest, Russian soldiers withdrew from their positions, leaving Ukrainian soldiers questioning their fate. This symbolic gesture highlighted a potential weakening in Russian resolve. However, this does not necessarily signal an end to the conflict; instead, it may indicate a temporary strategic withdrawal to reassess the situation.

Global Status Quo and Future Involvement

Russia has already maximized its capabilities and cannot afford to increase its military engagement further. Nations like North Korea and Iran have offered assistance, but these offers are contingent on Russia utilizing them effectively. Given the nature of the conflict, it is unlikely that any additional hostile actors will significantly alter the current balance of power.

Conclusion

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is complex and multifaceted. Whether through a ceasefire, a negotiated peace deal, or a prolonged military engagement, the future of Ukraine and its relationship with Russia remains uncertain. As the battle continues, the cost of conflict will be felt by all parties involved, and the international community will need to ensure that this struggle does not further destabilize the region and the world at large.