The Evolving Opinion on Scottish Independence Post-Brexit

The Scottish referendum on independence remains a contentious topic, especially in the aftermath of the Brexit decision. The British government's reaction to a potential Scottish departure from the Union has been complex and often contradictory. As an Englishman expressing views on this matter from a unique perspective, my stance has shifted significantly over the years.

Why Independence vs Brexit?

One of the most significant changes in my thinking about Scottish independence has been my stance on Brexit. Prominent political figures have advocated for independence while simultaneously supporting Brexit, which creates a paradoxical situation. Personally, I found it difficult to support the independence movement while being strongly against the historical and emotional connection that the United Kingdom and Europe share.

The Impact of David Cameron's Campaign

Looking back, the campaign led by then-Prime Minister David Cameron during the 2016 Brexit referendum left a bitter taste in the mouths of many Scottish people. Cameron's promise that Scotland would remain in the EU if it voted to stay in the UK was a cornerstone of his campaign. When Scotland voted to stay in the EU, but the UK voted for Brexit, the perception of a betrayal was widespread. This sentiment was fueled by the idea that the Scottish electorate had been misled.

The Waning European Identity in Scotland

The European identity has been a critical factor in the Scottish psyche, especially among younger generations. For the British and, increasingly, the Scottish, the concept of European identity holds significant importance. In the case of Scotland, the pro-EU turnout during the Brexit referendum demonstrated a strong desire to maintain that connection. As an Englishman, the idea of a fragmented UK has always been heart-wrenching.

The Case Against Independence

From my position in leafy Oxfordshire, one of my primary reasons against Scottish independence was the belief that Scotland was stronger as a part of the 70 million-strong UK within the European Union than it would be as an independent nation. Independence would mean that Scotland would lose substantial influence and power within the EU, becoming just one of the 450 million, possibly marginalized, members.

The Shift in My Perspective

In the past decade, my views have evolved. A decade ago, I had a mild inclination towards Scottish independence. However, now, I am firmly in favor. The awkwardness of the English-Scottish union, which has endured for 300 years, has become increasingly clear in the modern era. Social and political divides between England and Scotland have grown, making the union unsustainable for many.

The Optimal Solution for a Hard Border

Between Scotland and England, there are only 25 roads and three railways, making a hard border relatively simple to implement both politically and physically. By reducing road crossings to perhaps just 10, the UK could create a more controlled and cost-effective border, assuaging the EU's concerns about "contamination" into their single market. Such a border would also be easier to defend, a serious consideration for both nations.

The Need for Clear Terms and Negotiations

Before any referendum on Scottish independence, the terms of Scotland's exit from the UK must be fully negotiated. These negotiations should be limited to a five-year timeframe to ensure political accountability and prevent prevarication. This period would provide clarity on fiscal and monetary policies, defense matters, and other critical issues, allowing businesses to plan and adapt.

The Role of Democracy

A strong democracy must allow the biggest questions to be asked. With the Scottish National Party (SNP) dominating Scottish politics, the imperative of a referendum on independence cannot be ignored. If the Scots do not want to vote on independence, they are likely to vote Labour, which has not happened in recent polls. Therefore, the decision must be made by the people, and no one else.