Is Joo Doria a Contender for the Brazilian Presidency?

Has Joo Doria unexpectedly emerged as a potential contender for the Brazilian presidency? A year ago, the answer would have been tantamount to asking whether hell would freeze over. However, recent political developments have shifted the landscape, potentially opening the door for Doria to mount a serious challenge.

Factors Contributing to Doria's Success Prospects

The Brazilian electorate, historically drawn to 'national father' figures, might see Doria as the candidate who can promise to clean up corruption—a trait that characterized the rise of former president Janio Quadros during the mid-20th century.

The jingle of the French politician Charles de Gaulle comes to mind: 'Sweep, sweep, sweep! Little broom, Sweep, sweep, the bailiwick, great evil, hypocrisy and injustice, which the people are weary of, Suffering in this way.'

The Role of Media in Shaping Perceptions

Media influence plays a pivotal role in either elevating or undermining the prospects of a presidential candidate. The Globo News Corporation, one of Brazil's largest media conglomerates, wields significant power. Their repeated stance of impartiality is often mere lip service, with a barrage of accusatory headlines becoming a daily fixture.

When a candidate emerges without traditional endorsement, the coverage shifts. For instance, the election of the first president elected by popular vote after the military dictatorship, Fernando Collor de Melo, saw continuous and damaging news coverage. His rise at the expense of a legacy of dictatorship and lack of experience was meticulously portrayed by media outlets.

Realistic Projections for Joo Doria

For Doria to stand a legitimate chance at the presidency, several factors must align:

Lula in Jail: Doria's candidacy hinges on Lula's prolonged incarceration. The perception of Lula's imprisonment could shift public opinion, possibly affecting the outcomes of multiple political races, including Doria's. There is a popular joke in Brazil: 'PSDB does not go to jail.' Doria, being a member of PSDB, would likely face scrutiny and could become the most affected candidate if any doubt about Lula's innocence arises. Reputation as a Mayor: Doria must maintain his sterling record as the mayor of S?o Paulo. With over 20 million inhabitants, the city's success or failure under his leadership will directly impact his presidential aspirations. He would need to continue excelling in his role until 2018 to solidify his public image as a capable leader. Economic Recovery: A significant improvement in the economy could bolster his chances. If unemployment and inflation decline, a traditional candidate or someone from the current Michel Temer team, such as Henrique Meirelles, could gain traction. Economic stability plays a crucial role in swaying public sentiment. Lava Jato Investigations: The continued exposure of corruption scandals through the Lava Jato operation could either fuel or quell Doria's popularity. If the scandal grows and exposes more corruption, the public might become more radical, possibly favoring Doria. Conversely, if the scandal is overshadowed or doesn't expand, Doria's prospects could diminish. Bolsonaro's Moderation: Jair Bolsonaro's radical stance is a significant factor. Many view him as a polarizing figure; however, if he moderates his stance, he might become more attractive to a broader audience. This shift could compromise Doria's position as an alternative to the incumbent team.

In conclusion, while Joo Doria's path to the presidency remains challenging, recent events have presented unique opportunities. The interplay of media influence, economic conditions, and political scandals will likely determine whether he can capitalize on these opportunities and become a serious contender for the Brazilian presidency.